US Politics

It looks like we have another Republican to add to the list of politicians caught with their pants down. US Rep. Vito Fossella (R-NY) will not seek re-election, according to the NY Times, after revelations that he has a 3-year-old daughter out of wedlock. He was also arrested for DUI. His district is heavily Catholic, and Fossella is married with three legitimate children.

See Deborah White's post about Sen. Ted Kennedy.

Primaries In Kentucky and Oregon On Tuesday

As voters head to the polls on opposite sides of the country, Sen. Barack Obama leads Sen. Hillary Clinton with 52.8 percent of the pledged delegates. Neither candidate can win the nomination without the endorsement of a majority of the super-delegates.

Oregon and Kentucky are a study in contrasts, for more reasons than geography. Kentucky is much more rural (44% versus 23%). Oregon used to be reliably Republican in presidential contests (Oregonians voted for Dewey over Truman); Kentucky used to be reliably Democratic. Both have flip-flopped in recent elections.

But there is one place where the two states are similar: they have had a fondness for third-party candidates. Ross Perot captured 14% of the vote in Kentucky in 1992 and 24% in Oregon. What does this mean for Sen. John McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee?

See Pledged Democratic Delegate Count and Primary Results v Presidential Elections.

Using an obscure oversight authority, Thursday night the Senate "disapproved" a recent Federal Communications Commission rule which would relax restrictions on media ownership; it was a voice vote. President Bush has threatened a veto (pdf).

Should the resolution (SJ 28/HJ RES 79) pass, and be signed into law, it would be only the second time Congress has nullified an agency rulemaking. This is only the fourth time the Senate has voted on such a resolution; two of the four are FCC ownership rule rejections. From Senate Report 110-334:
Read more...

Breaking a long period of silence, former Senate and Vice Presidential candidate John Edwards endorsed Barack Obama at a rally in Michigan. Despite having withdrawn from the race, Edwards got 7% of the West Virginia vote on Tuesday. The 19 delegates pledged to Edwards may now vote their conscience.

Also endorsing Obama Wednesday: the National Abortion Rights Action League, which said it did so because he is the likely nominee. And on this week's cover, Time magazine declared Obama the Democratic presidential nominee.

See Presidential Votes By State - 1972-2004 and What Are Super-Delegates?

According to Wired,the Air Force is investing millions of dollars to enable it to gain "access" and "full control" over any kind of computer in the world ... and wishes to do so in a stealth manner.

The Air Force recently put together a "Cyberspace Command," with a charter to rule networks the way its fighter jets rule the skies. The Department of Homeland Security, Darpa, and other agencies are teaming up for a five-year, $30 billion "national cybersecurity iniative." ... "You used to need an army to wage a war," a recent Air Force commercial notes. "Now, all you need is an Internet connection."

This may be "news" to you (it was to me), but a quick Google search suggests I've simply been in the dark. Last year, Air Force Secretary Michael W. Wynne told airmen that America has enemies that "attempt to access American industrial servers that contain sensitive data, exploit electromagnetic energy to try and jam or misdirect our precision weapons and use radio transmitters to detonate improvised explosive devices, killing Americans, Coalition allies and innocent civilians." (Protecting the first item in that list should not be the responsibility of the military.) Also last year, Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. T. Michael Moseley " redefined the service’s mission as being 'to fly and fight in air, space and cyberspace.'"

A reminder that the Internet is a legacy of DARPA funding and that our credit-card defense spending may be re-paid by our great-grandkids. Moreover, I don't understand why a cyberwarfare defense effort is being led by the Air Force. Anyone?

On the eve of the West Virginia (5 electoral votes) primary, Sen. Clinton said "that Democrats don't get elected president unless west Virginia votes for you. And everybody knows West Virginia has picked presidents pretty accurately over the last years."

Well, she's partially right. From 1972-2004, West Virginians voted for Jimmy Carter (first go round) and Bill Clinton (both times). But they also voted for Carter when he lost to Reagan and Dukakis when he lost to Bush the elder. The past two elections, West Virginians have voted for the Republicans.

Sen. Obama is expected to lose West Virginia, which is not representative of the rest of the nation. It is overwhelmingly white (94.9% v 80.1%); less educated (high school graduates, age 25+: 75.2% v 80.4%); and poorer (percent below poverty, 16.2% v 12.7%).

I was pondering the Presidential Results by State, 1972-2004; Democratic Primary Results, 2008 chart ... and started counting. There are 11 (!) states (63 electoral college votes) that consistently voted Republican since 1972; this means that the odds that they will vote Democratic in 2008 are slim to none, even though the voters may not like Sen. John McCain as their candidate. Conversely, there is only one "state" that has consistently voted Democratic: the District of Columbia (3 electoral votes); the converse holds.

In the primary/caucus contests, Sen. Barack Obama won DC as well as 10 of these "Republican" states (all but Oklahoma). They are key to his leading Sen. Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates (those determined by state caucuses and primaries), but will they help ensure a Democratic win in November? Unlikely.

The states are overwhelmingly western/rural (not overwhelmingly "southern" - which may come as a surprise to some):

Read more...

As noted here last week, the Democratic Party isn't alone in failing to anoint a consensus candidate as the primary race comes to an end. The Republican Party, not split asunder as the Democrats are, also faces factions. Ron Paul supporters have convention mischief in mind, and the conservative evangelical based of the party is also unhappy with assumed nominee Sen. John McCain.

.... when you count electoral votes.

Voters in traditional (read on for definition) Democratic states aren't as divided as the Democratic party as a whole seems to be this primary season, based on an analysis of presidential elections since 1976 (when Jimmy Carter beat Gerald Ford).

Recall that VP Gore would have taken the White House had he been declared the winner in Florida, a key state that holds 27 electoral votes in 2008. If we look at popular vote counts in the states that voted for the Democratic candidate for President in two of these four elections (1976, 1988, 1992, 2000), Sen. Clinton trumps Sen. Obama by 224 electoral votes to 133 electoral votes. Reduce that to three of the four elections, and Sen. Clinton beats Sen. Obama by 68 electoral votes to 51 votes.

Read more...

The FBI has withdrawn a secret demand that the Internet Archive provide details of a registered user's personal information. This is reportedly only the third time an organization has succeeded in challenging a National Security Letter (NSL). The enormity of this success: the NYT reports that the "FBI issued nearly 200,000 NSLs between 2003 and 2006."

With a national security letter, the FBI can "require businesses such as libraries, internet service providers, banks, hospitals or telephone companies to provide customer records on request -- no court order (warrant) required." Courtesy of the US Patriot Act.

Read more...